Pablo Rodriguez's Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) is facing a significant crisis as it prepares for the October 2026 provincial election. A recent Léger poll had shown the QLP narrowing the gap with the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), trailing by just five points after months of larger deficits. However, a series of events over the past two weeks has put the party in a precarious position.

The turmoil began when Marwah Rizqy, the party's parliamentary leader, dismissed her chief of staff, Geneviève Hinse, citing a "grave error" and "insubordination." Hinse, who was appointed by Rodriguez to facilitate communication between Rizqy and himself, was let go without Rodriguez's prior knowledge or consultation. This left Rodriguez in a difficult situation: he could either overlook Rizqy’s actions, which would portray him as weak, or he could fire her, risking backlash from the public who favor Rizqy.

Rodriguez opted to remove Rizqy from her position, a decision that has not been well-received. The following day, Le Journal de Montreal published text messages suggesting a vote-buying scheme related to Rodriguez's leadership campaign. The messages indicated that supporters could receive $100 for their votes, reviving memories of past financing scandals that the QLP has worked hard to overcome.

In response to these controversies, Rodriguez announced an investigation led by a retired chief justice into the text-message allegations. Initially, he attempted to mend relations with Rizqy, inviting her to discuss the situation. However, Rizqy has remained silent publicly, although rumors suggest she is communicating with reporters off the record, causing concern among party members. She has not revealed the specifics of Hinse's alleged error, leaving the connection between the two controversies unclear.

Despite Rodriguez's efforts to reassure the public through interviews, including a prime-time appearance, he has struggled to demonstrate control over the situation. On Tuesday, he escalated matters by expelling Rizqy from the Liberal caucus, stating, "Enough is enough."

Compounding the party's troubles, Le Journal de Montréal highlighted that 38 individuals linked to the federal Liberal Party contributed to Rodriguez's leadership campaign. This has fueled perceptions that the QLP is becoming a provincial extension of the federal party, a narrative the QLP has long sought to counter. Although these contributions accounted for only 6 percent of the campaign's total funds, the political implications are significant.

Currently, four investigations are underway, including inquiries by the National Assembly's ethics commissioner, Elections Quebec, and Quebec's anti-corruption police unit. Investigative reporters are also actively uncovering new information. As a result, the QLP has found itself on the defensive for the past two weeks, diverting attention from their goal of challenging the government and the PQ as the election approaches. The outcome of the October 2026 election is crucial not only for Quebec but for Canada as a whole.