In the early months of 2025, I wrote a series of articles about consensus projections, focusing more on the starting talent but also some of the bench roster. It may have been a mistake not to delve deeper, because the projections weren’t entirely accurate. But they never are. It’s impossible to predict a season, we just have each system’s best guess at what is most likely to happen, given past and current norms, trajectories, etc.

This will be a bit of an undertaking so I am going to dive right in with some direct comparisons of projection systems and their consensus: • Nolan Arenado projected at 2.686 but was .9 fWAR… the bat x predicted the collapse with 1.4 war • Masyn Winn was projected at 2.957 but ended up at 3.5 fWAR, nearly matching his rookie season which had more offense. t

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