Chicken meat is displayed for sale in a market in Sao Paulo, Brazil May 20, 2025. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Brazilian chicken exports are expected to rise up to 0.5% this year to 5.32 million metric tons, meat lobby ABPA said on Wednesday, after exporters avoided trade bans triggered by a bird flu outbreak in May, including from key buyers China, Japan and the European Union.

Before the outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul state, which Brazil controlled in the space of roughly a month, ABPA had projected chicken exports growing by up to 1.9% to 5.4 million tons. In August, as some bans remained in place, ABPA had said Brazilian chicken exports could fall by as much as 2% to 5.2 million tons this year.

The return of bird flu outbreaks in the United States, which tend to reduce local production and chicken exports from Brazil's main competitor in global markets, may also give domestic chicken exports a push, according to ABPA.

"Brazil has 38% of the global chicken trade and the U.S. has 27%," said Ricardo Santin, head of ABPA, addressing a press conference. "Any reduction [in U.S. exports] has a big impact."

In its latest projections, ABPA also said Brazilian chicken meat production was expected to rise by up to 2.2% to 15.3 million tons in 2025 and to increase by up to 2% to 15.6 million tons in 2026.

ABPA noted the outlook is also positive for Brazilian pork production and exports, adding the country may become the world's third-largest pork supplier in 2025. Santin cited outbreaks of African swine fever in European countries and the Philippines, which create opportunities for Brazilian suppliers.

Brazil's pork exports may rise as much as 10% this year to 1.49 million tons, according to ABPA's new projections. Pork production this year is projected to rise by as much as 4.6% to 5.55 million tons, ABPA said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Louise Heavens, Mark Potter and Franklin Paul)