Republicans' unimpressive victory in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District Tuesday night has the party terrified, with lawmakers and strategists alike fearing that a number of House races once viewed as safe for their party will now be in play during the 2026 midterm elections.

Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn by just 9 percentage points—a massive underperformance from the 22 points by which President Donald Trump won the district just last year. Even more worrisome for the GOP is that the result happened with turnout more typical of a midterm than a special election.

Put simply, this wasn’t a low-turnout election, so it’s hard for Republicans to write it off as a fluke.

And given that Trump carried dozens of Republican-held House seats by smaller margins

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