Republican nominee Matt Van Epps heads to the stage with his wife, Meg Van Epps, to announce his victory in the Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election during his election night event at the Millennium Maxwell House Hotel in Nashville, Tenn.
House Speaker Mike Johnson takes questions from reporters alongside District 7 Republican nominee Matt Van Epps at billionaire Willis Johnson's car barn in Franklin, Tennessee on Dec. 1.

WASHINGTON ‒ Republicans avoided a major Democratic upset in a closely watched Tennessee special congressional election that turned into a surprisingly tight race in an overwhelmingly red district.

Still, while Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief for averting a disaster, Tennessee's 7th congressional special election provided another warning sign for Republicans of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections.

Here are key takeaways from Republican Matt Vann Epps' victory over Democrat Aftyn Behn:

Democrats continue to overperform nationally

Van Epps, a combat veteran and former state government official, defeated Behn, a liberal Democratic state representative by 9 percentage points, 54%-45%, in a Middle Tennessee district Trump carried by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election. He will replace retired Rep. Mark Green, R-Tennessee.

That amounts to a sizable 13-point swing in Democrats' direction, continuing a pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections this year.

In five other special elections to fill U.S. House vacancies this year, Democrats overperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' 2024 election performance by 17 points (Arizona's District 7), 23 points (Florida's District 1), 16 points (Florida's District 6), 28 points (Texas's District 18), and 17 points (Virginia's District 11).

Republicans have publicly downplayed the shift in Tennessee, arguing the outcome wasn't as close as some polls suggested. But the larger trend is a troubling sign for Republicans as they look to hold on to their current 219-213 House majority in 2026.

At the same time, Democrats are growing more convinced a double-digit swing in the electorate nationally can put into play a Democratic takeover of the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority.

Trump, GOP rescue mission worked

For Van Epps to limit Democrats' swing to 13 points, it took Trump injecting himself directly into the race − he held multiple tele-town halls for Van Epps ‒ and millions of dollars in outside money led by the Trump-affiliated MAGA Inc. PAC.

The money bankrolled attack ads painting Behn as a radical liberal to gin up Republicans' turnout.

Those efforts seemed to work. The race ended up matching midterm-level turnout, far exceeding the low vote totals of most special elections. Behn stood to benefit from a lower-turnout race in which Democrats were more energized. But about 180,000 Tennesseans ultimately voted, on par with the nearly 181,000 who voted in the 2022 Tennessee District 7 midterm election easily won by the GOP.

Behn appeared to win a majority of the early vote, reflecting a national trend in recent election cycles in which Democrats are more likely to vote early while Republicans wait until Election Day. But Van Epps used a massive Republican turnout on Election Day ‒ boosted by the aggressive last-minute push from Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other national Republicans ‒ to carry him to victory.

Republican efforts to nationalize the race paid off in Tennessee's deeply conservative District 7, but the same formula is unlikely to work in a swing district where Trump is less popular. Trump's approval rating has dropped nationally to a second-term low 36%, according to a Gallup poll released Nov. 28.

Quality of Democratic candidates debated

Republicans were able to go on the attack against Behn because the former community organizer and progressive activist provided so much material.

An active user of social media and online videos, Behn gave Republicans a trail of statements to pounce on to fire up the GOP base.

With an onslaught of ads, Republicans labeled Behn a "far-left lunatic" and the "AOC of Tennessee" and seized on her past social media comments questioning whether police should be dissolved, remarks that religion being prominent in the state legislature makes her "uncomfortable," and commenting that both "men and women" can give birth.

Democratic voters in October narrowly chose Behn as their nominee over three less polarizing candidates: Bo Mitchell and Vincent Dixie, both state representatives, and Darden Copeland, a Nashville businessman.

Some have argued a more moderate candidate would have performed better against Van Epps. However, the Monday-morning quarterbacking ignores Behn's success in driving up turnout among the Democratic base, particularly in Democratic-stronghold Nashville, where she far outperformed Harris' 2024 performance.

The debate over candidate quality illustrates a larger dilemma among Democrats on the type of person to field in the 2026 midterms.

Behn did not fit the same centrist profile as Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, who helped deliver Democrats' strong performance on Nov. 4 with their lopsided, double-digit victories in gubernatorial races.

At the same time, much of the energy within the party has shifted to the left, as evident by New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's victory on the same election night.

Democrats will have to work carefully to see which type of Democrat works in each race.

Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Key takeaways as Democrats overperform in Tennessee special election

Reporting by Joey Garrison, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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