ANALYSIS – The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political savant, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm.

There’s a perception that normal rules don’t apply to Trump, who overperformed the polls and got elected twice with baggage that would end most political careers. But that’s not really true, particularly when he’s not on the ballot.

Even though Trump was the surprise winner in 2016, it’s been long enough to forget that 2018 was a normal midterm election. His job approval rating sunk to 44 percent over the course of his first two years in office, and Republicans got thumped, losing more than 40 House seats.

That’s what happens to parties when they

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