A favorite pastime of election watchers and political operatives is to extrapolate every little detail possible from the results of an off-year or off-cycle election. This week was no different.

On Tuesday night, Republican congressional candidate Matt Van Epps successfully held Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District for the GOP, while underperforming the district’s recent GOP margins.

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At first glance, Van Epps’s 9-point victory was hardly anything to celebrate. On paper, this congressional district overwhelmingly favors the GOP. Its last representative, Mark Green (R-TN), won his last two races by at least 20 points, inclu

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