A new report on the economic outlook for California's Central Valley shows the region facing a rising recession risk because of tariffs, slowing job growth, and rising delinquencies.

Stanislaus State University's Fall 2025 San Joaquin Valley Business Forecast said the recession risk in the region is now estimated at 50%, a significant jump over the long-term average of 15% and signaling that a long-anticipated regional slowdown is fully materializing.

The report said that tariffs and retaliatory trade policies by the Trump administration are contracting real GDP growth, driving up costs, and creating widespread uncertainty that restrains business investment. As a result, regional employment growth has weakened across most sectors in 2025 and is projected to soften even further into the

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