A weak La Niña is becoming increasingly likely over the next three months, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) saying there is a 55 per cent probability. While it may slightly cool global temperatures, most regions are still expected to stay warmer than usual. Emerging borderline La Niña conditions are set to influence rainfall and temperature patterns through early 2026.

For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions increases from about 65 to 75 per cent. The probability of an El Niño remains very low, so its opposite impacts are not expected, predicts WMO.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a k

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