Dems 'prepared to marshal every resource' as they eye 2026 flip in Pennsylvania

It was an early sign of Democrats’ off-year electoral strength when James Malone, the former mayor of East Petersburg, defeated Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons in a March special election. He became the first Democrat to represent Lancaster County in the chamber since 1889.

His victory was only by a mere 529 votes, but it was a shock to many political observers who thought a Democrat would never stand a chance in the race. The win gained national attention.

On Monday evening, Malone (D-Lancaster) officially launched his reelection campaign at Lancaster Distilleries in Columbia Borough.

“In that special election, voters from this community came together to say they were ready for something different,” Malone said. “This campaign isn’t about the noise or the chaos. It’s about neighbors. It’s about making our communities thrive. It’s about making sure Lancaster continues to grow in a way that reflects our values and our future.”

For both Malone, and Pennsylvania Democrats more broadly, the campaign launch was something like planting a flag. Despite the unique circumstances that led to his victory, the state party says it’s ready to help him win again, and are even aiming for the longshot goal of flipping the entire Senate, which is currently controlled by a 27-23 Republican majority.

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“We are prepared to marshal every resource necessary,” Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Campaign Committee (SDCC) Chair Vincent Hughes told the Capital-Star. “And anyone who doubts that need only look at the results of the special election in Senator Malone’s seat earlier this year. We won it before. We can win it again. The Trump Agenda carried out by Republicans in Pennsylvania is wildly unpopular and they will answer for that in 2026.”

The 36th District race is likely to be one of the most closely watched in Pennsylvania. While the district voted strongly for Trump, it also went for Gov. Josh Shapiro by a less than 1% margin in 2022, according to data shared by the SDCC.

The path to a Senate majority is narrow, and would likely rely on Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis presiding as a tie-breaker. But Democrats say they believe there are enough vulnerable Republicans up for election, and a favorable enough political environment, to eke out that victory.

Brittany Crampsie, a spokesperson with the SDCC, said along with holding onto Malone’s seat, Democrats are working to flip four other districts. They’d need to win all of them, without losing a single seat, to get a majority.

Specifically, they’re targeting the 6th District, which includes parts of Bucks County and is represented by Sen. Frank Farry (R-Bucks); the 16th District, which contains Lehigh County and is represented by Jarrett Coleman (R-Lehigh) ; the 24th District, which includes parts of Berks and Montgomery Counties and is represented by Tracy Pennycuick (R-Montgomery); and the 40th District which includes Monroe County, and is represented by Rosemary Brown (R-Monroe).

Democrats have reason to be optimistic. A number of Pennsylvania races in November’s municipal elections went their way. And a special election in a strongly Republican congressional district in Tennessee on Tuesday night has shown that momentum for the party remains strong.

While Republican Matt Van Epps won by a comfortable margin, Democrat Aftyn Benn had a surprisingly strong showing.

The district swung from one that voted for Trump by a 22 point margin in 2024, to electing a Republican by only 9 points on Tuesday.

That’s a 13 point shift. All of the Senate Districts Democrats are targeting in 2026 voted for Trump by a smaller margin in 2024, according to data shared by Crampsie.

Republicans, however, see a chance in the 36th District to retake a seat and cement their majority.

“The biggest difference from the 2025 special to the 2026 election is voters will actually know who James Malone is now,” said Michael Straw, the communications director with the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee (SRCC). “They’ll be well-informed about his voting record that has harmed small businesses and doesn’t represent the voters of the 36th Senate district.”

Straw added that Democrats’ recent victories have all come in off-year elections, where turnout is typically low. Only 29% of eligible voters participated in the March special election, relative to the near-80% who voted in the 2024 presidential election, an environment which Republicans believed favored Trump.

But, Republicans aren’t relying on turnout alone.

James Markley, the communications director for the Pennsylvania GOP, began his job on the day of Malone’s special election victory in March.

“It was a whirlwind,” he said and laughed.

Asked how Republicans plan to combat Democrats’ electoral gains since the 2024 election, he said they plan to pull a page from Democrats’ playbook, nodding to their recent victory in the statewide Supreme Court retention elections, which saw voters elected to retain a liberal majority on the bench.

“We saw what happened this November on election day, and we’re gonna be working extremely hard to do what we can to cut into the margins, to do a much better job facilitating and using mail-in ballots,” Markley said.

But, embracing mail-in ballots may mean Pennsylvania Republicans will be fighting against the leader of their national party, President Donald Trump.

“I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media site that he owns, in August. Trump has long opposed mail-in voting and claimed, without evidence, that the practice is rife with fraud.

Still, Markley is optimistic, especially looking at voter registration trends across the commonwealth. While Democrats have maintained higher numbers of registered voters in Pennsylvania for decades, Republicans are starting to catch up.

“The biggest Republican victory in my lifetime in Pennsylvania was 2024,” Markley said. “There’s gonna be some pushback and there’s gonna be some victories for the other side in the next few years. We’re definitely seeing that, but I think Republicans are doing a great job pushing back everywhere they can. If you look at the registration numbers, they’re trending Republicans’ way.”

Another source of confidence for Malone’s team is the sustained popularity of Gov. Josh Shapiro, who will be on the ballot in 2026. Shapiro won his gubernatorial election by a roughly 15 point spread in 2022 against pro-MAGA candidate Doug Mastriano. And his approval rating remains relatively high.

Despite Shapiro eking out a victory in the district, in 2024, voters overwhelmingly chose Trump to be the next president.

Sexton hopes to use Shapiro’s popularity to Malone’s advantage, saying they plan to run “along with the governor.”

“We have good relationships there to do so,” she added. “Plus, we now have the benefit of incumbency.”

A spokesperson for Shapiro’s own reelection campaign did not respond to questions from the Capital-Star about what that might entail, or how Shapiro plans to get involved. In 2024, however, Shapiro was a visible surrogate for both the Biden and Harris presidential campaigns. His PAC also backed all Democratic row office candidates, save one who opposed Shapiro’s vice presidential ambitions.

However, Shapiro faced a far-right and conspiracy-prone candidate, Doug Mastriano, in 2022, who lost by a 15% margin. Now, the leader in the Republican primary race to unseat him is Stacy Garrity, who won reelection as treasurer in 2024 by a larger margin than any statewide candidate.

“A unique individual”

Stella Sexton, Malone’s campaign manager and vice chair of the Lancaster County Democratic Committee, called Malone “a unique individual, who is really the perfect person to have won and to hold this seat.”

She cited his eight years as mayor in East Peterson, a position he wasn’t paid for, and his upbringing in Wyoming.

“He’s not a typical politician,” she said. “He’s from Wyoming and grew up hunting and fishing for subsistence. He knows how to farm. He knows the building trades and put himself through school as a roofer. This is a guy who knows the value of hard work and can relate to people. And people sense that and feel that.”

Sexton said their campaign will focus on issues close to home: affordability, rising housing costs, school funding and supporting first responders.

“People are very concerned about the cost of living,” she said. “People want to be able to live and work in areas where they feel like they have a good home, and they have a good school district to send their kids to. We hear that a lot.”

Malone, who has a background in software development, has also been working in Harrisburg on issues related to artificial intelligence safety. He authored an amendment to a bill regulating sexually explicit deepfake images of children, known as CSAM. He was motivated by an issue in a Lancaster County school where sexually explicit images of students were created with AI and shared without consent. The bill would require teachers and other authority figures to notify investigators when made aware of such images. It passed the Senate unanimously last month.

Malone’s victory in March was something like a proof of concept for the upcoming elections. With Trump’s popularity dwindling since entering office, Democrats believe they can win in unlikely places. Holding the seat, however, in an election year that is likely to have much higher turnout, may be the real test.

Though Sexton sees November’s municipal elections as proof that they can hold on. Manheim Township’s board of commissioners, for instance, is now controlled by Democrats.

“I think we did such a good job of talking about how that was a Trump 15+ District, which it was in 2024, that some folks think, ‘Oh my gosh. How are we gonna win that?’” Sexton said.

But she pointed to Democrats’ victory in the district, with voters supporting the retention of Democratic judges on the Supreme Court.

“We’re seeing some increasing purpling here,” Sexton said. “One of the reasons for that, I think, is that the people in the district — both our candidates and our voters — were energized by [Malone’s] win, and saw a path for themselves, and really worked hard.”