The war in Ukraine may come to an end, but the West will have lost

Canada now stands at a strategic crossroads. The war in Ukraine, once framed as a defining test of Western resolve, is entering what appears to be its final and least favourable phase. Ukraine’s battlefield position has weakened. Territorial losses in the east and south are mounting. American officials now concede privately that Kyiv’s position is unlikely to improve. As Washington signals that a negotiated settlement is necessary, the war’s outcome will be shaped chiefly by the United States and Russia. Canada and Europe will have little influence over the final terms.

This is not only a setback for Ukraine. It is a warning to Western democracies, including Canada, that have long assumed our preferred outcomes were guaranteed by history. The conflict has exposed the limits of that beli