Of all the recipes for success as a political leader, the best is to have a rival who’s falling apart.

David Eby should have that framed and hanging by his desk to explain how he’s managed to hold on to office. His British Columbia New Democrats retained power last year by the proverbial whisker. Their seat count and vote share — won by a more popular NDP predecessor — both dropped, while a Conservative party that had previously existed only in some kind of weird zombie world where the dead could walk — went from less than two per cent of the vote to 43 per cent and 44 seats. Add in two Green seats and Eby remained premier by a single seat.

His standing hasn’t improved since then. Thanks to all the current catalogue of Canadian concerns — cost of living, health care, housing plus some purely local negatives — his popularity is down near the bottom of premiers alongside Ontario’s Doug Ford and Quebec’s subterranean François Legault.

But wait. A year after almost ousting Eby, the Conservatives’ John Rustad has stumbled to his rescue, upsetting enough of his caucus to have them gang up and oust him as their leader. The precise nature of Rustad’s transgressions aren’t yet clear but he was evidently terrible at overseeing a large caucus, leaving its members deeply dissatisfied with the substance and style of his management. Rustad’s fall has echoes of the mutinous attitude that eventually forced the departure of Justin Trudeau, though it took 12 years for Liberals to decide enough was enough, while B.C. Tories got there in 12 months.

In any case, it’s all good news for Eby, who can now reasonably anticipate months, if not years, to press ahead without fear of a serious opposition threat. It will take time for Conservatives to pick a new leader, via a process that won’t necessarily be peaceful given the various factions that Rustad cobbled together after the provincial Liberal party, which wasn’t really very Liberal, changed its name and declined to contest the 2024 election.

Across the country in Quebec, François Legault would probably give his right arm, figuratively speaking, for an opponent like Rustad. He may in fact have one in the person of Pablo Rodriguez,  a former federal cabinet member who left Ottawa to lead the provincial Liberals and has ushered them straight into a morass of infighting, backstabbing and general disorganization that differs from the B.C. Tories’ mainly in that much of it’s been done in public.

Elevated to the leadership in June, Rodriguez already faces a petition demanding his resignation. The origins of the petition are obscure, but it comes as the party is beset by a raft of disruptions involving allegations of vote-buying, the firing of a party colleague close to the new leader and an alleged witch-hunt over leaks that have led to weeks of negative headlines. Numerous investigations are underway as the Liberals try to regain some of the momentum they enjoyed in the new leader’s first months.

The Rodriguez imbroglio would be pleasing news for Legault, who is so deeply unpopular after seven years in office that it’s assumed his Coalition Avenir Québec will get trounced in next year’s election, if only Quebec were a two-party province like so many others. Inconveniently enough it’s not, and the benefit of the CAQ’s collapse, coupled with the Liberal implosion, is going to the separatist Parti Québécois, which has been leading opinion polls since the beginning of last year and most recently widened the gap to 16 points.

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold yet another independence referendum — Quebec’s third — if elected. On Thursday the party released details of its thoughts on a new constitution and plans for provincewide “consultations” on the new country’s borders, capital, flag, court system and political institutions. Plamondon has already indicated  an independent Quebec would have its own currency, though maybe not until 10 years after separating and maybe not at all if dropping the loonie threatened its economy.

A sovereignty crisis is hardly what Prime Minister Mark Carney needs at a time when he could be deeply enmeshed in free trade talks with an unpredictable, unreliable and deeply untrustworthy U.S. administration. Imagine the fun Donald Trump could have lobbing taunts about the possibility of the U.S. gaining not just one but two new states, one of them speaking French.

The situation cries out for a government with a firm hold on Parliament, which Carney lacks. What he does have is an opposition keen on avoiding an election, with at least two parties struggling with doubts about their own leadership. Foremost  among these is the Conservative party of Pierre Poilievre, who has made clear he sees no reason to change the way he does things just because he lost the past election and is deeply unpopular with critical sections of the electorate.

Tories have been breathing down the Liberal neck in national polls for most of the current government’s existence. It might be doing even better if not for the fact Poilievre’s popularity significantly trails his party’s. Canadians aren’t in love with the Liberals but appear willing to continue giving them the benefit of the doubt, even if unsettled at the time Carney’s taking and the amount of money he’s spending while they wait for improvement.

They are decidedly not warming to Poilievre. And, save for a few token attempts — he managed to show up at an annual media dinner he usually boycotts, and even joke about himself — he shows little inclination to woo them. Two defections and rumblings of caucus discontent leave Poilievre vulnerable to accusations of micro-management, immoderate control and an emphasis on loyalty that discomfort many Tories outside the core of his western base of support.

In January he faces a leadership review he was once expected to sail through, but which could now reflect doubt that rigidly following the same path that ended in defeat, including in his own seat, is the best means of winning the next time.

Politicians like to portray themselves as people who make tough decisions. “Do you think it’s easy to set priorities,” the Liberals’ Stéphane Dion once bleated while defending his leadership. It might seem the task would be easier for opposition politicos whose main task is questioning and criticizing the people in power. Not in Canada, apparently.