The historical probability of a white Christmas across the U.S. and Canada, based on snow depth from an international data set known as ERA5-Land from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
A fresh blanket of snow fell a few days before Christmas in 2022 in Holland, Michigan.
The historical probability of seeing a white Christmas.

Christmas is still over two weeks away, so meteorologists can't yet predict for certain where folks will see snow on the big day. However, with predictions of a cold month of December likely, including a potential Arctic blast coming up, the odds may be better than the historical average in many areas.

For now, the best we can go on is where snow has been reported on past Christmas Days.

If you're yearning for a snowy holiday, there are many regions of the United States where weather history suggests you'll want to be if you're looking for the best chance of seeing a white Christmas. For more, read on.

Here's what you need to know

It need not snow Dec. 25 to fit the weather service's definition of a white Christmas: There just needs to be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. A trace amount of snow does not count. However, any snow that falls during the day certainly adds to the Yuletide mood.

On average, about 38% of the contiguous 48 states has an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data compiled by NOAA.

Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from only 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009, according to Weather.com.

Blame Bing?

The USA's fascination with a white Christmas dates to 1942, when Bing Crosby first crooned the wistful song in the film "Holiday Inn." Written by Irving Berlin, the song's lyrics bring out a romanticized image of Christmases past, "just like the ones I used to know." A second movie – White Christmas, also with Crosby – came out in 1954.

Where is a white Christmas most likely?

Alaska. Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the parts of the United States where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas, NOAA says.

Looking for a near-surefire city to visit to see a white Christmas? Head to Fairbanks, Alaska, which has seen snow on the ground practically every Christmas since weather record keeping began, according to data from NOAA.

As of early December, Fairbanks was already reporting a snow depth of 11 inches.

Some of the other big cities with the best probability for a white Christmas, based on historical averages, include Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.

All of those cities were reporting snow-covered ground as of Dec. 8, so that's a good sign as we approach the holiday.

Historically, much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and a large portion of the Western mountain areas have a 90% or better chance of a white Christmas.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Snow on Christmas? What to know about the white Christmas forecast.

Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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