Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks on during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are on the brink, to say the least. At this point, barring a miracle, it seems like an abject certainty that the Chiefs will miss the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2014.

At 6-7, the reigning AFC champions are firmly out of the AFC postseason picture. And with just four games remaining, they are eliminated from AFC West contention by virtue of the Denver Broncos' current 11-2 record.

It gets a lot worse from a Wild Card perspective. Not only do the Chiefs have to win out to even have a prayer at qualifying for the 2026 postseason, but they also need A LOT of help.

Why? Because:

  • The 8-5 Houston Texans have the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially giving them a three-game lead over the Chiefs.
  • The 9-4 Buffalo Bills have the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially giving them a four-game lead over the Chiefs.
  • The 9-4 Jacksonville Jaguars have the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially giving them a four-game lead over the Chiefs.
  • The 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers have the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially giving them a four-game lead over the Chiefs.

Sans the Indianapolis Colts, who sort of seem destined to collapse anyway, that is every important team ahead of Kansas City in the AFC Wild Card picture (Houston and Jacksonville may jockey for the AFC South division lead down the stretch). Put another way: Things are looking very bleak for the Chiefs.

That makes this Sunday's matchup against the Chargers a sudden-death game for the Chiefs, a franchise that has played in every AFC title game over the last seven years and in five of the last six Super Bowls. If the Chiefs lose, they are all but effectively eliminated (a stunning, potential upset of the Texans by the Arizona Cardinals would only keep Kansas City on life support). Their already limited margin for error would evaporate into thin air.

We have never seen the Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce Chiefs in this sort of desperate position. I'm still unsure how to process it beyond laying out the stone-cold facts.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Chiefs are essentially eliminated from NFL playoffs with 1 more loss

Reporting by Robert Zeglinski, For The Win / For The Win

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect