NFL QB Advanced Stats after Week 14
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) signals a first down during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 36-19.
Dec 7, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) rushes the ball past Washington Commanders outside linebacker Von Miller (24) during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

J.J. McCarthy played the best game of his pro career in Week 14. His three touchdown passes helped the Minnesota Vikings cruise to a 31-0 victory over the Washington Commanders keep their incredibly slim playoff hopes alive.

But beating the league's worst passing defense is merely the first maneuver when it comes to turning a battleship made of bad timing and off-target throws around. McCarthy's return to the field gave him enough snaps to qualify for this week's quarterback rankings. It helped him close the gap on the field -- just not enough to climb out of last place.

The data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through 13 games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.

Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 224 plays) that looks like this:

Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com's outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:

Let's take a look at what the numbers say -- and what they got right and wrong as the playoff push begins.

Tier I: Advanced stats love a nice deep ball

1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.204 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.19

The league's two most efficient quarterbacks also stand atop their division. They've also found ways to lose to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns this autumn. Football is a weird sport.

Tier II: A slight bump from Tier III, but it's very close

3. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.172 EPA+CPOE composite

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.167

5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.15

The competition wasn't great, but the guys on this tier managed to back up their All-Pro credentials with big performances.

Stafford's MVP march resumed after a hiccup in Carolina. He threw three touchdowns without a turnover to quietly roll over a remarkably forgettable Arizona Cardinals team. Allen reminded the NFL he's a singular talent by mounting a dramatic comeback to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and their 32nd-ranked defense. Darnold came off a brief skid by toppling the Atlanta Falcons.

Tier III: Very good and possibly missing out on the playoffs

6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.144 EPA+CPOE composite

7. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 0.139

8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.134

9. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.128

10. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.127

Welp. that's where Jones is going to stay after a torn Achilles crushed his brief midwestern resurgence. The Houston Texans had Mahomes in absolute hell while dropping the Chiefs' playoff odds down to a robust 10 percent.

Brock Purdy's composite of 0.150 would rank fifth in the NFL if he had enough snaps to qualify. Kyle Shanahan can make any quarterback look good, and it's gonna lead to Mac Jones getting two years and $40 million this offseaosn.

Tier IV: The realm of under- and over-performance

11. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.104 EPA+CPOE composite

12. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 0.098

13. Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders: 0.097

14. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.095

15. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.095

Hurts' EPA on running plays has dropped from 0.34 in last year's Super Bowl run to 0.14. Jackson's rush EPA has actually risen from 0.07 in his first-team All-Pro 2024 to 0.31 this season, but he's also scrambling on less than 17 percent of his dropbacks -- the lowest mark of his career. Without their legs, this dual-threat combination has faded in 2025.

Dart's EPA per run is 0.43 because his dream is to finish off each carry by hitting someone as hard as he can with his face.

Tier V: Wheat and chaff

16. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 0.085 EPA+CPOE composite

17. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.078

18. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.074

19. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.072

20. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.06

21. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 0.06

22. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.058

23. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.055

24. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.051

25. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.047

26. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.043

27. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.043

The advanced stats continue to undersell the improvements of the last two guys on this tier. Williams and Lawrence have both significantly improved over the course of the season for teams destined for postseason invitations. Lawrence has limited the turnovers that crushed his offense earlier this fall, posting a clean sheet the last two weeks as Jacksonville took over first place in the AFC South.

Williams continues to get stung by some downfield inaccuracy -- his -8 CPOE is worst in the league -- but manages to make big plays with his arm and legs in clutch situations (his Week 14 underthrow notwithstanding).

Rattler continues to be a little bit better than Tyler Shough when it comes to the numbers. Brissett is better than Kyler Murray was when healthy, albeit not in a way that mattered. Daniels returned from injury to get thrown to the wolves against the Vikings, proving that overworking and subsequently breaking young franchise quarterbacks is a tradition that won't be abandoned now that Dan Snyder is hiding from subpoenas away from the NFL.

Tier VI: Frustrating, with some silver linings

28. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 0.027 EPA+CPOE composite

29. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.027

30. Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.025

31. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.023

32. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 0

Ward escapes the bottom rung by virtue of modest improvement. He's still not good, but he's also playing with one of the most talent-deficient rosters in the NFL. He managed to only get sacked once against the Browns, which feels like an achievement in and of itself.

Tier VII: Gross.

33. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: -0.017 EPA+CPOE composite

34. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: -0.017

McCarthy returned to the Vikings' lineup and threw three touchdowns without an interception to beat the Commanders. That was enough to bump him all the way up to last place in the quarterback rankings. Shedeur Sanders, for comparison, is at a -0.018 but doesn't have enough snaps to qualify yet. So, at least Minnesota's got that going for it.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB rankings Week 15: J.J. McCarthy rises to 34th place

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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