Multnomah County leaders could face a sea change in the county’s Preschool for All program after a preliminary forecast showed a huge drop off in expected preschoolers who will fill classroom seats in the coming years.

The county has long estimated that it needs to provide over 11,000 tuition-free preschool seats by 2030 to meet its goal of offering classroom spots to every family that wants one. That number may be closer to 7,500, according to early data analysis by a demographer who advises the program. That would be an approximately 30% drop in need.

“A validated change in the fundamental demographic assumptions behind the Preschool for All rollout will likely have significant programmatic implications,” Stephen Herrera, a senior policy advisor to Chair Jessica Vega Pederson, told

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