Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws downfield during a heavy downpour during the third quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing to win a fifth straight NFC South title in 2025. But they might not breeze to a division win this year.

As Week 15 began, the Buccaneers were tied with the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South lead at 7-6. With three divisional matchups still to play this year – including two against Carolina – Tampa Bay still had opportunities to pull away with a division lead.

Instead, they dropped to second place in the division with a loss to open Week 15 – their fifth loss in six games.

The Buccaneers' "Thursday Night Football" meeting with the Atlanta Falcons was the first of their three remaining divisional games. It was also the second of three straight weeks of all-NFC South clashes for the division's co-leader, with the Bucs' Week 14 loss to the New Orleans Saints already looming large entering this week.

Here's a full look at Tampa Bay's playoff picture in Week 15:

Buccaneers playoff odds

NFL Next Gen Stats gives the Buccaneers a 53% chance to make the playoffs after their "Thursday Night Football" loss. The Panthers – now in sole possession of first place in the NFC South – play the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday, Dec. 14. If Carolina wins, it will likely only further diminish the Bucs' playoff chances.

If the season ended after the first game of the week, Tampa Bay would be on the outside of the NFC playoff bracket. The Buccaneers are still in a race for the NFC South, and the Panthers have yet to play this week.

As Tampa Bay's drop to the outside of the playoff bubble with their loss demonstrates, both teams' best chance to make the playoffs rests on winning the division. Both the NFC West and NFC North feature three teams with better win percentages than both teams, meaning the two NFC South competitors would have an uphill battle to clinch a wild-card spot.

The Buccaneers have now lost five of their last six games. The Panthers have crept into sole possession of the top spot in the division with a 4-3 record in their last seven games. The two games still to come between the pair of teams will likely decide who wins the NFC South.

Buccaneers remaining schedule

The Buccaneers have a moderately difficult schedule according to the cumulative records of their future opponents. However, Tampa Bay still has to play two games against the Panthers, its closest competition in the race for a fifth straight divisional title. Those two clashes are the NFC South leaders' only two divisional games after Week 15's loss against the Falcons.

Tankathon rates their remaining schedule as the 14th-hardest league-wide. Here's who the Bucs still need to play:

  • Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons: L, 28-29
  • Week 16: at Carolina Panthers
  • Week 17: at Miami Dolphins
  • Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers

NFC South standings

Tampa Bay is in a two-team race for the NFC South with three weeks left. The Buccaneers and Panthers entered Week 15 tied for first place with twin 7-6 records and still have two head-to-head games to duke things out for the top divisional tiebreaker.

The Buccaneers' loss on Dec. 11 dropped them to second place in the division.

  1. Carolina Panthers (7-6, 2-1)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 2-2 NFC South)
  3. Atlanta Falcons (5-9, 2-3)
  4. New Orleans Saints (3-10, 2-2)

NFC playoff picture

  1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3; NFC West leaders)
  2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, NFC North leaders)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5; NFC East leaders)
  4. Carolina Panthers (7-6; NFC South leaders)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3, wild card No. 1)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Chicago Bears (9-4; wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-5); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7); Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1); Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Eliminated: Atlanta Falcons (5-9); Arizona Cardinals (3-10), New Orleans Saints (3-10); Washington Commanders (3-10); New York Giants (2-11)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Buccaneers playoff picture: Odds, remaining schedule, NFC South standings

Reporting by Jack McKessy, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect