Adam Kucharski is a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and an award-winning science writer. His book, The Rules of Contagion, was a Book of the Year in The Times, Guardian, and Financial Times. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika, and COVID. He has advised multiple governments and health agencies. His writing has appeared in Wired, Observer, and Financial Times, among other outlets, and he has contributed to several documentaries, including BBC’s Horizon.

What’s the big idea?

In all arenas of life, there is an endless hunt to find certainty and establish proof. We don’t always have the luxury of “being sure,” and many situations demand decisions be made even when there is insufficient evidence to ch

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