Zhang Mingyang (left) fights Anthony Smith during a UFC Fight Night at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri,

In a 5-round light heavyweight bout in the main event, Johnny Walker and Zhang Mingyang meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 257 -- also known as UFC on ESPN+ 115 -- at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, China (ESPN+). The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, followed by the main card at 6 a.m. ET. Their bout is expected to start around 8:15 a.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 257: Walker vs. Mingyang odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Walker (21-9-0) | Mingyang (19-6-0)

Walker is looking to halt a 2-bout losing skid. Both setbacks were in fight night events in 2024. In his last bout, he suffered a Round-1 KO/TKO defeat to Volkan Oezdemir in June 2024. Earlier that year in January, he lost a Round-2 KO/TKO to Magomed Ankalaev in a main event. He is just 4-6 in the past 11 bouts with 1 no contest.

In 3 fights at the UFC level, Zhang has won 3 consecutive fights via KO/TKO, defeating Anthony Smith (April 2025), Ozzy Diaz (November 2024) and Brendson Ribeiro (February 2024). However, this is a giant step up in competition for the fighter representing Team Xtreme Couture known as "Mountain Tiger."

Zhang gets his crack at the big time, but he is giving up 6.5 inches in reach. The 27-year-old Chinese fighter has managed a 10.91 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage, while landing 65.50% of those strikes. However, that's all in 3 fights ending in Round 1, so that number is a bit inflated due to the short distance of those bouts.

Walker has a 3.87 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute mark, while landing 58.53% of those strikes. He has a 0.45-takedown average and 0.89-submission average, showing his ability to get the job done in multiple ways.

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UFC Fight Night 257: Ortega vs. Zhang odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:55 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Walker +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Zhang -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 1.5 rounds (Over +230 | Under -325)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +900 | No -3000)

UFC Fight Night 257: Ortega vs. Zhang picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Zhang (-375) heads into this battle as the heavy favorite, but WALKER (+300) has the experience and the reach advantage. Walker be able to push and pull Zhang in and out at his discretion, keeping him at a distance when things get too hot.

Walker can tap into his tremendous experience at the UFC level, fighting 14 times. Yes, he is 3-2 in the past 6 bouts with a no contest and has been knocked out in the past 2 bouts. However, Zhang gives up more than a half foot in reach, and that's a bigger deal than the sportsbooks are considering.

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Over/Under

No (-3000): Fight to go the distance? is obviously not a good wager ... as part of a multi-leg parlay or otherwise. But OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+230) is worth a roll of the dice. While this shouldn't go the full 5 rounds, taking the fight to at least get past the midway point of Round 2 is a good bet at plus-money.

WALKER IN ROUND 2 (+1400) and WALKER IN ROUND 3 (+3500) to get the victory is also worth a shot in a 2-round block bet. Sure, even if Walker pulls the upset with a win in Round 2 or 3, you'll lose one end, but you'll still be so far ahead, it is worth it.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 257: Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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