Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) walks off the field during a pitching change in the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-59) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (86-54) Thursday for the rubber match of a 3-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 4-1

Philadelphia has dropped 2 of its last 3 games after falling 6-3 at Milwaukee Wednesday as a -110 favorite. LF Weston Wilson hit a 2-run homer in the seventh inning, and the Phillies outhit the Brewers 9-6 in the loss.

Milwaukee snapped a 2-game losing streak with Wednesday's win as a +102 underdog. The Brewers got the scoring started early with 5 runs in the first inning, including a 3-run homer from LF Isaac Collins. 2B Brice Turang recorded 2 hits for the third straight game, including an RBI double in the fourth. With the win, the Brewers clinched the season series and potential tiebreaker.

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Phillies at Brewers projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Suarez (10-6, 3.02 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 131 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 2-1 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
  • Career vs. Brewers: 0-1, 3.04 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 5 starts

Peralta (16-5, 2.58 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 153 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 7-2 road win against Toronto Blue Jays Friday
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-2, 3.64 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 13.7 K/9 in 7 games (6 starts)

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Phillies at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-225) | Brewers -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: -102)

Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-125).

Peralta has been one of the league’s top pitchers this season, leading MLB in wins and ranking fourth in ERA. Milwaukee has won 11 of his last 14 starts, and the Brewers have dominated the Phillies, winning 4 of 5 in the season series. They’ve also been tough at home, posting a 46-25 record compared with Philadelphia’s 35-36 mark on the road.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

In a matchup between the best teams in the National League, the moneyline will have the best value.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-102).

The Under is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings dating back to June 2024.

While this total is lower than most, this matchup features 2 pitchers who limit runs and runners.

The Phillies are 4-2-1 to the Under in their last 7 games. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 -- and 5 of their last 7 -- while allowing 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 5.

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 7 games, while allowing 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 7.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Seth Orlemann, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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