Question: Democrats are celebrating a slew of "special elections" wins over the last several months, and see this success translating to the 2026 congressional midterm elections. But do special elections predict what will happen in future general elections?

Answer: Every time there is a special election in the United States, you will find people, analysts and politicians attempting to interpret whether that election is a bellwether for the future. Earlier this year, a Democrat won a special election for a Pennsylvania state senate seat in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. This was followed most recently by a key state senate seat in Iowa changing hands. Do these mean a big party swing for the midterms? The unsatisfying answer is that they can mean so

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