The Storm Prediction Center has painted us as having a marginal risk of severe weather on Thursday. Anytime there is a severe weather threat for our area, a lot needs to go right for storms to develop. Thursday's storm chance has a particularly high bar to clear in order for storms to develop in the afternoon.
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The main thing is how much instability is able to build with off-and-on rain expected all day long. At this point, it looks like the window for severe weather will be from around 5 p.m. - 9 p.m.
Thursday's rain and storm chance will come as we see a late-day cold front slide through our area. Convergence of winds at the surface ahead of the front will be enough to also cause lift and mos