Clouds fill the sky on Labor Day in El Mirage, Arizona, on Sept. 1, 2025.

A calm stretch in the heart of the tropical storm season could grow turbulent over the next week as a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic threatens to become Hurricane Gabrielle while in the Pacific Hurricane Kiko could rattle Hawaii, meteorologists say.

The National Hurricane Center says that over the next several days the environmental conditions for the tropical wave southwest of Cabo Verde "remain conducive" for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend. The system is expected to move west to west-northwest at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week.

"Due to large amounts of dry air currently in the region, any tropical development and strengthening would likely be gradual," AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. "But it's possible that anything that forms could ramp up to a hurricane by the end of the weekend."

Most model forecasts suggest the tropical wave will become Tropical Storm Gabrielle either by this weekend or early next week, wrote Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com. He says that for the next several days the system may need to combat pockets of dry, stable air and wind shear that can stunt the growth of such storms.

Erdman said most models show Gabrielle eventually curling northward into the Atlantic. It's too soon to know whether that recurve would send the storm harmlessly out to sea or threaten Bermuda.

"At this time, there isn't a direct threat to the U.S. coast from Gabrielle," Erdman said.

DaSilva said that, aside from Gabrielle, tropical development elsewhere in the Atlantic is likely to remain minimal because of a strong area of high pressure and the persistent dry, dusty air in the middle of the ocean.

Hurricane Lorena targets Mexico

In the Pacific Ocean, Huricane Lorena was centered about 100 miles from Cabo San Lucas early on Sept. 3, the National Hurricane Center said. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to slam the Mexican states of Baja California and Sonora by Sept. 4 and 5. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, and maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible.

"This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain," the center warned.

The storm could also contribute to heavy rainfall across Arizona late through Sept. 5. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible, the center said.

Hurricane Kiko slowly approaching Hawaii

Hurricane Kiko will be closely watched for up to 10 days, AccuWeather Meteorologist Geoff Cornish said.

"Over the next seven days we will be watching it to get closer to Hawaii," he said. "We expect Wednesday and Thursday of next week for it to be very close to the islands and will have some direct impacts most likely."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Quiet stretch of hurricane season could be disrupted by Gabrielle, Kiko and Lorena

Reporting by John Bacon, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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