Under President Donald Trump’s administration and its aggressive immigration crackdown, the U.S. population could decline in a historic first, research suggests.

“If current trends hold, 2025 could be the first year on record in which the U.S. population actually shrinks,” journalist and Abundance co-author Derek Thompson wrote in a Substack post.

Trump has vowed during his presidency to deport “millions” of immigrants in what he claims will be the largest mass deportation in American history. That pledge, combined with plummeting birth rates and an aging population, could set the stage for a demographic reversal unseen in the nation’s history, Thompson said, citing analysis from the Pew Research Center and the American Enterprise Institute.

The immigrant population in the U.S., which

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