The Jobs Report Is Coming

Friday’s Employment Situation report arrives at a pivotal moment for Federal Reserve policy and market expectations. Wall Street is forecasting a gain of 75,000, in line with July’s figure of 73,000. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2 percent, though it could round up to 4.3 percent.

Numbers significantly better than expectations—say, a decline in the unemployment rate or a surge in payrolls above 100,000—could derail the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point when it meets in two weeks. Significantly worse figures might prompt the Fed to repeat last September’s 50 basis point cut .

But interpreting Friday’s numbers requires understanding a fundamental shift in how the labor market works.

The Immigration Game-Changer

The most

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