Is the Fed ready to go big? Analysts debate jumbo rate cut after soft jobs data

The dismal August jobs report has now put a half-point September rate cut “in play,” according to some analysts, while others caution that inflation pressures from tariffs make a 50-basis-point cut unlikely. Futures tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate put odds of a half-point cut at around 11.7% after the jobs data, up from 0% on Thursday.

The case for a bigger rate cut is gaining momentum.

After another dismal jobs report , some economists say the Federal Reserve may now have to move more aggressively at its September meeting, with a 50-basis-point cut potentially on the table.

The tally for August followed a shocker for July , and the latest report showed payroll growth stalling, unemployment climbing to its highest level in nearly four years, and months of more downward revisions.