How much a coach wins or loses is of paramount importance when evaluating their performance, but so is how they did relative to expectations. Win more than oddsmakers projected you would? You should be in line for Coach of the Year consideration. Win less? Research suggests your seat is warming up.

(Incidentally, this is why we often see Coach of the Year winners seemingly carry a "curse" in subsequent seasons: One year's surprising overperformance sets the bar of future expectations higher, portending backlash -- and sometimes dismissal -- when they go unmet.)

The same applies to new hires. While the jobs they take were generally open for a reason, the question isn't whether they would immediately contend for a championship -- it's whether they could get more out of their rosters than

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