OTTAWA — A recent Leger poll reveals that half of Canadians view Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's chances of defeating Prime Minister Mark Carney as poor. This comes as Carney's approval ratings show early signs of decline.

Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns stated, “Mr. Poilievre still has work to do… to broaden his appeal to the greater electorate.” The poll indicates that 50 percent of Canadians believe Poilievre has slim chances of winning against Carney and the Liberals in the next general election. This sentiment is echoed by nearly one in five Conservative supporters, with 18 percent expressing doubt about Poilievre's prospects. Conversely, 19 percent of Liberal supporters think he has a good chance of winning.

Just over one-third of respondents, or 36 percent, believe Poilievre has a solid chance of defeating the Liberals, highlighting the challenges he faces as the election approaches. However, nearly three-quarters of Conservative supporters remain optimistic about Poilievre's chances, which may bode well for him ahead of a leadership review scheduled for January. Enns noted, “If you’re the Conservatives, you’ve got to make sure that people are listening to Pierre and you’re connecting not just with your voters,” suggesting that Canadians may not be fully engaged with Poilievre's message.

The situation is not entirely favorable for the Liberals either. Carney's government currently leads the Conservatives by nine points, with 47 percent support compared to 38 percent for the Conservatives. However, the poll indicates that Canadians are becoming increasingly impatient for the prime minister to fulfill his commitments.

Satisfaction with Carney's government has declined steadily since July, with only 51 percent of Canadians expressing satisfaction, down from 55 percent. Dissatisfaction has risen from 33 percent to 38 percent during the same period. Enns commented on this trend, stating, “Month to month haven’t really been big changes. But when you look at the beginning of summer to where we are now, at the beginning of summer they had a 22-point gap advantage in terms of satisfied versus dissatisfied. That’s narrowed to 13.”

As the fall session approaches, Canadians are eager for the government to deliver on its electoral promises. The poll also suggests that many Canadians were not closely following political news over the summer. For instance, over half of respondents, or 53 percent, reported being unfamiliar with Carney's “projects of national interest” initiative, a key program the Liberals have frequently discussed since their election on April 28.

Enns remarked, “I would imagine that there might be some folks in the Prime Minister’s Office that would go ‘wow, what the heck’,” referring to the lack of public awareness about these initiatives. In the spring, the Liberals passed the Building Canada Act, which grants the cabinet extensive powers to expedite natural resource and infrastructure projects deemed in the national interest. Recently, the Liberals appointed Dawn Farrell, former CEO of TransMountain, to lead the Major Projects Office, aimed at facilitating the approval of these projects.

While specific projects submitted for fast-tracking have not been disclosed, Carney has mentioned potential expansions at ports like Contrecoeur and the Port of Churchill. Among the proposed projects, 46 percent of respondents believe that new pipelines to enhance markets for Canadian oil and natural gas would significantly benefit the economy. Additionally, 72 percent of Canadians want major projects to progress more quickly, while only 16 percent prefer the usual pace. Enns concluded, “The expectation in the public on that is that they are going to be faster, they are going to be special and they’re going to move quicker.”

The Leger poll surveyed 1,592 respondents from September 5 to 7. Online surveys do not have a margin of error due to the lack of random sampling.