An analysis of current data releases as of September 5, 2025, reveals that the U.S. economy is showing signs of stalling.

U.S. real GDP rose 3.3% in the second quarter, according to the second estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each quarterly estimate is revised in the two months following the initial release. Growth in the second quarter was up from a 0.5% drop in the first quarter. Stronger growth in the second quarter reflected reduced imports and a solid increase in consumer spending. Investment spending declined, reflecting strong inventory decumulation, as well as lower levels of residential and nonresidential building. Offsetting movements in imports and inventories likely reflect firm responses to tariffs. Nominal corporate profits were up 1.7% over the quarter

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