Is the artificial intelligence boom over before it really began? The question sounds absurd — and yet it’s precisely the kind of headline that’s begun creeping back into public discourse. However, talk of an “AI winter” is premature, and perhaps even a categorical error.

This is a classic instance of the so-called Amara Law, which states that we tend to overestimate the short-term impact of a new technology and underestimate its long-term impact. Deja vu with the internet bubble, the telecom bubble, the crypto bubble. These were ebbs and flows of financial instruments and public interests, and yet the underlying technology continued its course and eventually had a great impact in the real world, which was eventually recognized again by investors. The Godfather of value investing, Ben

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