The U.S. Drought Monitor released Sept. 11, 2025, shows ongoing and worsening drought in the Western U.S., along with portions of the Midwest and New England.
Wildfire concerns are highest in parts of California, most of Hawaii and western North Carolina in October.

Drought continues to worsen in several parts of the country, meteorologists warned in early September as dry conditions are forecast for many areas later in the month, sparking additional fears about wildfires in the fire-prone West.

"The top story is the drought in the Western U.S. has gotten considerably worse from late June to early September," James Aman, senior meteorologist at environmental firm AEM, told USA TODAY.

How much worse? In June, 51% of the West was in a drought. Now it's ballooned to 64%, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Additionally, 100% of the giant Colorado River basin is now in a drought.

Northwest drought deepens

Specifically, the U.S. Drought Monitor now shows much deeper levels of drought in Washington State, northern Oregon, Idaho, and the western end of Montana.

In Washington, the state has been forced to issue a drought declaration for an unprecedented third year in a row due to the ongoing dryness, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The report said that water storage in Washington’s five reservoirs in the Yakima River Basin has dropped sharply, bringing levels, at times, to some of the lowest measured since record-keeping started in 1971.

Elsewhere in the Northwest, northern Idaho and western Montana have been dealing with drought conditions for nearly three years.

Colorado River basin faces 100% drought

"Drought is also much worse in the central Rockies (west and southwest Wyoming, the west half of Colorado and all of Utah)," Aman said.

Additionally, 100% of the Colorado River Basin is now in a drought, according to the Drought Monitor. The Colorado River Basin includes all of Arizona and parts of Colorado, California, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico and Nevada.

The parts of the basin in drought include large areas of "extreme" or "exceptional" drought in the Upper Basin, where most of the water supply comes from.

Downstream, ongoing worries about the giant reservoirs of the West, such as Lakes Mead and Powell, continue. In fact, water levels at Lake Powell, one of the main water storage reservoirs for the Colorado River Basin, could fall low enough to stop hydropower generation at the reservoir by December 2026, according to the NOAA report.

The Colorado River and the two reservoirs have been suffering because of a multidecade drought in the West intensified by climate change, rising demand and overuse. The river also serves Mexico and more than two dozen Native American tribes, produces hydropower, and supplies water to farms that grow most of the nation’s winter vegetables.

Wildfire worries

With the worsening drought comes worries over wildfires. Currently there is "high fire danger" across many areas of the western U.S., especially in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Oregon, and western and northern California, Aman said Sept. 11.

"A dry weather pattern is likely to return for the middle of September in the Northwest U.S.," he said. "For September, this means above normal potential for wildfires in western Washington State, northwest Oregon, and much of California."

Could this be a particularly bad fall for fires in California?

Wildfire danger shifts specifically to California over the next few months, Aman said. "For October, the above-normal fire risk shifts to western and Southern California. In November and December, the above normal fire risk is mainly confined to southern California.

"Remember that later autumn is a favored time for dry Santa Ana winds in southern California, that can enhance the fire risk."

Santa Ana winds are notorious for fires in Southern California. These winds, most common from September to May, pose a significant wildfire risk by drying out vegetation, the National Weather Service said.

Drought concerns in the Midwest and Northeast

Widespread moderate drought has developed recently in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, where precipitation during August was well below normal (rainfall deficits of 3 to 5 inches).

Declining soil moisture and low streamflow are leading to stress on crops and livestock in the Midwest, according to an online report from DTN Weather. "Low water levels in the Ohio River are also affecting river transportation on the Ohio and the Lower Mississippi waterways," the report said.

A NOAA drought report said "due to the potential for continued dry conditions and the return of above-normal temperatures by mid-September, drought is expected to persist through September across southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky, southern and central Illinois, and Michigan. Further drought development is expected across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northwest Kentucky, and southern Michigan."

In New England, "an area of severe drought is noted in Vermont, New Hampshire, and central and southern Maine. A return to below-normal rainfall is seen for mid-September in these areas, which could lead to some expansion or deepening of drought into mid-autumn," Aman said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Where's the rain? Here's where a dry and dangerous fall is in the forecast.

Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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