The math underpinning the fight for control of the Senate is pretty straightforward this cycle.

Democrats (including independents who caucus with them) hold 47 seats, while the GOP holds 53. With a Republican in the White House — and the vice president available to break any ties — Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to take back the Senate majority.

The 2026 Senate class includes 13 seats currently held by Democrats and 22 seats held by Republicans. That should give Democrats plenty of opportunities to flip GOP seats.

But a state-by-state rundown of Senate races shows significantly more Democratic than Republican seats “at risk.” There’s an extra dose of uncertainty this year because of the number of Senate retirements.

Four incumbent Democrats — Richard J. Durbin of Illinois,

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