Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tennessee, listens during a roundtable focused on juvenile crime on Aug. 11, 2025, in Memphis.

President Donald Trump confirmed Sept. 15 that he will send the National Guard to Memphis. Tennessee’s Republican Gov. Bill Lee and Memphis Mayor Paul Young, a Democrat, said that they had been in discussions with the Trump administration about a National Guard presence in the Bluff City to combat the high crime rate.

While local rumors abounded in recent weeks, political pundits elsewhere focused on the likelihood of the National Guard landing in Chicago. Then, in a sudden turn, Trump chose to send troops to Memphis instead.

It's debatable whether any of these temporary deployments will have a long-term impact on crime reduction in the affected cities. It's a bit like paving a pothole, then scraping up the asphalt so it can be used elsewhere.

But why the shift in locations? Like most Trump decisions, this one is all about the politics.

In June, Trump sent 4,000 guard members and 700 Marines to Los Angeles to support immigration enforcement. The move was without the cooperation of California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

In August, the president issued an executive order to federalize the Washington, DC, police and ordered the National Guard to support law enforcement.

Since then, Trump has publicly toyed with the prospect of sending the National Guard to other “blue” states and cities such as Boston and Chicago. However, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker pushed back hard.

Trump finds path of lesser political resistance in Tennessee

In contrast, Lee is a Trump acolyte, despite Trump calling Lee a RINO (Republican in Name Only) on Truth Social when the two were on opposite sides of a Tennessee state Senate primary in 2024.

Lee has been in conversations with the president for some time about bringing additional federal resources. Meanwhile, Young is securely wedged between the proverbial rock and a hard place, because local governing power is derived from the state and the mayor is not the commander in chief of the National Guard.

This is a win for Trump.

In California, Newsom sued the administration and won in federal district court. In Illinois, Trump would have faced similar legal challenges. In Tennessee, neither the governor nor the state’s hard-right-leaning attorney general will challenge the deployment, and local leaders likely do not have a legal leg to stand on.

From Trump’s perspective, Memphis is an ideal community to continue his military experiment because of a high crime rate, a majority Black population and because it is a blue dot in a dark red state.

Does Memphis need federal assistance to fight crime?

The bulk of National Guard members will likely be deployed inside the city limits of Memphis – and largely in poor, Black neighborhoods. There is no political risk of bothering MAGA voters, who largely reside in the suburbs surrounding Memphis.

Equally important, the Memphis Police Department just announced that the crime rate has reached a 25-year low. This was not an overnight phenomenon. For more than a year, Young has been touting weekly reductions in crime, backed up by the city's Safer Communities database in the mayor's Friday e-newsletter.

So why send the National Guard now? It allows the president to declare victory when crime continues to fall. Trump has already taken credit, claiming the declines are the result of additional FBI and other federal resources he dispatched to the city.

The other political advantage for Trump is tacitly supporting the gubernatorial campaign of U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn without officially endorsing her over a fellow Trump loyalist, U.S. Rep. John Rose.

Blackburn, an unabashed Trump supporter, whose only infraction was voting to certify the Electoral College results after the 2020 presidential election, was on the list of Trump’s potential vice presidential candidates in both the 2016 and 2024 elections.

Following the announcement that Blackburn was entering the governor’s race on Aug. 6, USA TODAY Washington correspondent Joey Garrison tweeted:

“President Trump says he hasn't decided who he will endorse between @MarshaBlackburn and @JohnRoseforTN in the TN governor's race. Trump says both are 'fantastic.' 'I'll probably be forced to do it. I wish I didn't have to do it. But you know, I'll probably be forced to do it.' "

A National Guard presence at Blackburn’s behest will be shouted from the rooftops in heavy-GOP primary voting enclaves in the state. The action allows Trump to markedly assist the front-running Blackburn while officially claiming to remain neutral – for now.

Whether or not you believe deploying the National Guard in Memphis or any other community is a prudent crime-fighting strategy, don’t fool yourself into believing it is about safer communities. Just as with every decision made by this administration, the purpose is not in the policy, but in the politics.

Mike Carpenter is principal of Carpenter Civic Strategies, a strategic communications practice. He previously served on the Shelby County (Tennessee) Board of Commissioners and in the administration of former Memphis Mayor A C Wharton.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What's the National Guard's objective in Memphis? Get Trump a political win. | Opinion

Reporting by Mike Carpenter / USA TODAY

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