The world’s market for vaccines, as it exists today, depends on the United States. The U.S. has poured immense resources into the design and development of vaccines, and has paid far higher prices for doses than most other nations can afford. The federal government has issued broad vaccine recommendations, generating strong, consistent demand. “That’s a predictable market,” Richard Hughes IV, a public-health-law expert and the former vice president of public policy at Moderna, told me. It’s also a huge one. Seth Berkley, the former CEO of Gavi, which supports the immunization of about half the world’s children, told me that the U.S. accounts for 35 to 40 percent of global vaccine revenue at a minimum, more than all of Europe combined.

But since the start of this year, when Robert F. Kenne

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