(CNN) — This year’s winter heating bills may send a shiver down many Americans’ spine.

The cost of staying warm at home is expected to jump an average of 7.6%, to $976 this season, according to a new estimate from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. The spike stems from increases in electricity and natural gas prices, as well as a forecast for a somewhat colder winter.

The projection comes as many consumers are still feeling the squeeze from pricier summer electric bills , as well as continued higher costs for groceries , health insurance and other essentials. At the same time, the amount of federal assistance available to help people cover their utility bills is expected to remain flat.

Just how much more Americans will have to pay this winter depends greatly

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