There is one week of baseball left to be played, and the future of the AL East—and a first-round bye—hangs in the balance. In an unexpected turn of events, the division is still somewhat open to a battle following the Toronto Blue Jays’ recent four-game skid, and the New York Yankees could realistically pull off the old smash and grab at the eleventh hour.

Entering play on Monday, the Yankees have an 88-68 record to their, and eyeing their first AL East crown in a decade, the Blue Jays lead the division at 90-66. Given that the Jays hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Yankees are, by all accounts, three games back, and they have six opportunities to chip away. It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in math to realize that the numbers aren’t in the Yankees’ favor at this point, and FanGraphs presently

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