Tropical activity is intensifying in the Atlantic Basin. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring Hurricane Gabrielle, which is tracking east of Bermuda, along with two tropical disturbances in the central Atlantic that may develop this week.

The first disturbance is located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. It has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. Over the past 24 hours, shower and thunderstorm activity in the area has increased. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development by Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center predicts that a tropical depression is likely to form by mid to late week as the system moves west-northwestward. Forecast guidance suggests a track similar to that of Hurricane Gabrielle.

The second disturbance is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms situated several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, to the west of the first system. This system has a 50% chance of development within the next week. Slow development is possible as environmental conditions gradually improve. A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Regardless of development, it may bring gusty winds and showers to the Leeward Islands early this week as it tracks west-northwest.

A tropical depression becomes a tropical storm when maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, at which point it will receive a name. The next name on the list is Humberto.

The development of Gabrielle marks the end of a notably quiet period in the Atlantic Basin, which included the climatological peak of the hurricane season on September 10. Forecasters expect tropical activity to continue increasing in the coming weeks as conditions become more favorable for development.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that the odds of tropical development are rising across parts of the Atlantic Basin. This trend is likely to continue into early October as large-scale environmental conditions become more conducive to storm formation. Experts at Colorado State University support this forecast, noting that changes in wind patterns and other atmospheric factors could lead to a significant increase in activity.

Although the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has passed, approximately 60% of tropical activity typically occurs after September 10. Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane season activity takes place between August 20 and October 10. Last year, late September and early October were particularly active, with multiple high-impact and potentially devastating threats.