When the U.S. government heads toward a partial shutdown, a natural instinct is to anticipate dire consequences for financial markets and the economy. • The history doesn't support it, however.

Why it matters: In the past, at least, government shutdowns have been a micro story, not a macro story. • That is, they have caused plenty of annoyance and disruption to the work of individual agencies but haven't had any meaningful impact on headline numbers like GDP or unemployment. • The open question is whether the Trump administration's handling of the imminent shutdown will change that.

By the numbers: The most recent shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 2018 through mid-January 2019. In those two months, payroll employment grew by an average of 221,000 jobs, better than the 166,000

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