New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ Sept. 28 announcement that he is dropping his bid for reelection raised hopes among conservatives that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a socialist state Assembly member, can be stopped by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani.

Adams, a centrist Democrat like Cuomo, was also making an independent bid after a federal indictment on corruption charges that were dropped by the Justice Department after Trump took office.

But it remains unlikely that Cuomo can surmount Mamdani's commanding lead in recent polls if Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa remains in the race.

Adams made a late exit

Basel Smikle, professor at Columbia University and former director of the New York state Democratic Party, said Adams' decision to leave the race a little under four weeks before early voting begins makes it harder for Cuomo to use the narrowed field to his advantage. In fact, Adams' name will still appear on the ballot as it's too late to be removed.

Smikle pointed to Mamdani's June primary upset, consistently high polling and more recently, a wave of high-profile endorsements such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Kathy Hochul and leading community organizations. The top two Democrats in Congress, both from New York City − House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer − have not endorsed.

"I think the overall narrative is going to stay the same," he said. "You have a young candidate in Zohran (Mamdani) who has energized the race, versus (Cuomo) as a more establishment candidate."

Polls show Mamdani well-ahead

For many weeks before Adams’ Sunday announcement, polling has put the race in an effective face-off between Mamdani and Cuomo. Adams has trailed the two front-runners for months, while Sliwa – already at a disadvantage in a famously blue city – has failed to net competitive figures.

Now with Adams gone from the race, his vote share could fall to Cuomo.

The problem for Cuomo is that Adams' support is smaller than Mamdani's lead. In the three most recent major polls released within the past two weeks, Mamdani has held double-digit leads over Cuomo, ranging from 21 to 18 percentage points ahead. The polls showed Adams with a paltry 7-9% support and Sliwa with a wider range between the three surveys, with 9%, 11% and 17%.

In Quinnipiac University's early September survey of likely voters, pollsters ran the numbers of a hypothetical three-way race should Adams step out of the running. They found Cuomo would net the biggest boon, with a 6-point boost, while Mamdani would get 1 point and Sliwa’s percentage of support would remain the same. That would leave Mamdani with 46% support among likely voters, Cuomo with 30% of support and Sliwa at 17%.

A Sept. 9 New York Times poll and analysis estimated a similar outcome, with Adams supporters likely to throw their weight behind Cuomo. The analysis modeled a prospective two-way race between Cuomo and Mamdani, should Sliwa drop out − which the Republican candidate has not signaled since Adams' announcement. That two-way model showed a highly competitive race, with 48% supporting Mamdani and 44% supporting Cuomo.

Even if all of Adams’ supporters flock to Cuomo, Smikle said the former governor "is still a long way from closing that gap (with Mamdani)."

Adams has not endorsed Cuomo

On Sept. 5, news outlets reported the Trump administration was considering Adams to serve as ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Adams initially said he hadn't received a formal offer and had always wanted to be New York City's mayor, before declaring his decision to leave the race on Sept. 28, in a nearly 9-minute-long video address posted to X.

"Who would have thought that a kid from South Jamaica, Queens, growing up with learning disabilities, would one day become the mayor of the greatest city in the world," Adams said in the address, sitting beside a picture of his late mother.

Adams touted his administration's policies on housing, crime, education and social services, before blaming the media and an independent city agency that administers the city's campaign finance system, for "undermining" his campaign. He also claimed he was "wrongfully charged because I fought for this city," referencing now-dismissed federal charges in 2024 that accused the mayor of accepting free travel and political donations from Turkish officials to take actions that benefited their country.

Adams did not endorse any candidate in the address, but did appear to make a veiled insult to Mamdani and his progressive platform, saying "extremism is growing in politics," and that "our children are being radicalized to hate our city and our country."

Notably, Trump has not backed fellow Republican Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels anti-crime patrol group.

A 65-year-old Democratic mayor elected in 2021, Adams had been facing calls to drop out of the race for months, with his administration plagued by scandal, resignations and corruption allegations. That pressure came most recently from Washington, where Trump has pushed for a one-on-one race against Mamdani, 33, who represents parts of Queens in the New York state legislature.

The race's three remaining candidates were quick to release statements reacting to Adam's news on Sept. 28.

Mamdani, whose campaign has focused on the high cost of living in the city, released a video statement slamming the mayor's record.

"A city that was already hard has become nearly impossible for those who call it home," he said, referring to Adams' tenure. "But a new day is coming. Over the past year, tens of thousands of you have built the biggest grassroots campaign our city has ever seen. You have knocked on millions of doors, all to make the city affordable. In just over five weeks, we will turn the page on the politics of big money and small ideas and deliver a government every New Yorker can be proud of."

Daniel Kurzyna a spokesperson for Curtis Sliwa's campaign, didn't mention Adams at all in response to the news, instead focusing squarely on the race's front-runner, Mamdani.

"Curtis Sliwa is the only candidate who can defeat Mamdani," Kurzyna said. "Our team, our resources, and our funding are unmatched. Most importantly, we have the best solutions to help working people afford to stay in New York City and feel safe."

In a statement, Cuomo struck a different tone, saying he believes Adams was "putting the well-being of New York City ahead of personal ambition" in dropping out. Cuomo also referred to unnamed "destructive extremist forces" he says could devastate New York City, adding that it is "not too late to stop them" but did not go into further detail.

"Mayor Adams has much to be proud of in his accomplishments," Cuomo said in his Sept. 28 statement. "Only in New York can a child raised in a tenement in Bushwick, who once worked as a squeegee boy and a mailroom clerk, rise to become mayor. Whatever differences we may have, Eric Adams’ story is undeniably one of resilience, a testament to the spirit of this city.”

Contributing: Eduardo Cuevas, USA TODAY.

Kathryn Palmer is a politics reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@usatoday.com and on X @KathrynPlmr.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What does Eric Adams abandoning NYC mayoral race mean for Mamdani and Cuomo?

Reporting by Kathryn Palmer, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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