London, United Kingdom – How much trouble is Keir Starmer in? How long has the UK prime minister got to turn things around?

That those questions are being reasonably asked is sort of extraordinary.

Little more than a year ago, in July 2024, Starmer led Labour to a landslide victory. Labour became by far the biggest party in the House of Commons, with 411 seats, a majority of 174.

That is such a significant majority that it was widely assumed that Labour, and Starmer, would get at least two terms – 10 years – to impose their vision of the UK after 14 years of the Conservatives.

Instead, polls have the rebel Reform, previously viewed as a protest party, on track to win the next election on the back of rising anger about the economy and immigration.

One poll, the Sunday Times MRP survey

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