The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on October 1, 2025. The repo rate currently stands at 5.50 percent, with the policy stance described as “neutral.” However, the August 2025 policy communication was read as quite hawkish by market participants. Since then, market dynamics have shifted due to GST rate rationalisation (which is likely to ease inflation in India) and increase in tariffs on Indian goods exports to the US, steep hike in new H1B visa fees. As a result, market expectations for the upcoming policy remain mixed.

In August 2025, the RBI projected real GDP growth at 6.50 percent for FY26. Q1FY26 the real GDP growth was reported at 7.8 percent, which exceeded the expectations of market in general. However, nominal

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