Tanzania has conducted regular polls since the first multiparty elections in 1995. But they have often failed to meet democratic standards. The opposition has been persistently excluded and restricted, and media freedoms and civil rights have been suppressed. This pattern has come to be identified as electoral authoritarianism.

Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), will seek to extend its dominance on 29 October 2025. It has been in power since independence in 1961, making it one of Africa’s longest-serving ruling parties.

I have studied Tanzania’s political party dynamics for a decade and in my view CCM’s candidate, Samia Suluhu Hassan, is destined for a landslide victory after the disqualification of two major opposition parties. Samia became president following the death in office of John Magufuli in 2021.

Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) was disqualified for refusing to sign the election code of conduct. The party’s chair, Tundu Lissu, faces treason charges for calling for electoral reforms. The presidential candidate of the second-largest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has also been disqualified following a petition filed by the country’s registrar of political parties.

This makes the election significantly different to the last poll, held in 2020. That year, opposition parties participated, despite electoral flaws. This time, the ruling party goes to the polls virtually unchallenged. It will be looking for a seventh consecutive election victory.

The campaign is now dominated by CCM at all levels. There are indications that voter turnout will be low, with little public enthusiasm, especially knowing that a CCM victory is certain. Since 2010 the voter turnout has been shrinking. The elections in 2010 and 2020 experienced notably low voter turnout, with rates of 42.7% and 50.7%, respectively.

Tanzania continues to experience a decline in democracy, accompanied by heightened political repression and restrictions on political rights and civil liberties. The country’s status in the Freedom House democracy index dropped from the Partly Free category in 2020 to the Not Free category going into 2025.

Polling

Tanzanian general elections include three main categories: presidential, parliamentary, and councillor seats. They take place across the mainland and Zanzibar, Tanzania’s semi-autonomous state.

The 2025 elections feature 272 constituencies, 222 of which are mainland and 50 of which are in Zanzibar. Eight new constituencies were created in the mainland earlier this year.

The Independent Electoral Commission announced that a total of 37.7 million people had registered as voters in the 2025 elections, compared to 29.8 million at the last election: a 26.55% increase. According to the commission this reflects a rise in population but critics allege a scheme to manipulate the vote during the elections.

The electoral commission has cleared 16 presidential candidates. Samia, a native of Zanzibar, is running for her first full term. Her running mate, Emmanuel Nchimbi, has deep roots within CCM.

Chadema has called for electoral reforms, a stance which has brought charges of treason and incitement against Lissu.

ACT-Wazalendo’s candidate Luhaga Mpina was barred from running after the attorney general said his party had not followed nomination procedures.

With Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo out of the presidential race in mainland Tanzania, Chama Cha Ukombozi wa Umma (Chaumma), a fringe party that has benefited from the defections of some Chadema members, has emerged as the only challenger.

Its presidential candidate and running mate are Salum Mwalimu and Devotha Minja, who defected from Chadema earlier this year.

Chaumma’s apparent campaign resources have led some to conclude that it is surreptitiously backed by the ruling party. Chaumma and the 15 other fringe parties run the risk of legitimising an already flawed electoral process.

In Zanzibar, incumbent Hussein Mwinyi of CCM is seeking another term. He faces competition from Othman Masoud of ACT-Wazalendo. This will be the first general election in Zanzibar without opposition icon Seif Shariff Hamad, who died in 2021. He was a perennial presidential candidate in Zanzibar, always claiming that he had won but never becoming president.

In 2010 a government of national unity was formed in which he became the first vice president in a gesture aimed at reconciliation.

Campaign issues

The CCM is promising to deliver a strengthened economy, infrastructure development and improved healthcare. It has also pledged a new constitution. This last promise is part of the rhetoric previously peddled during political campaigns.

When Samia took office in 2021, she initiated reforms that promised improvements in governance. These are long forgotten.

Chadema’s “No Reforms, No Elections” position continues to shape public discourse. The call has focused minds on the governance and human rights issues facing Tanzania. These include attacks on media freedom, the targeting of government critics, and gross violations of human rights and abductions.

It has had an effect too on international opinion of Tanzania. Several international organisations including the African Commission on Human Rights and the European Parliament have voiced their concern about the deteriorating human rights situation in Tanzania.

ACT-Wazalendo has resolved to pursue reforms by participating in the election, with the rallying call of Linda Kura (protect the vote).

What’s different (and what’s not) this time

There is a new electoral framework for the 2025 election.

Three new electoral laws were passed. These are the National Electoral Commission Act (2023), the Presidential, Parliamentary, and Local Government Elections Bill (2023), and the Political Parties Affairs Laws (Amendment) Bill (2023). These changes led to the establishment of a new electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission, with the promise of reforming the electoral system.

A multi-stakeholder engagement recommended changes to enhance the electoral body’s independence. On this basis, a government task force recommended the creation of an “independent” committee, chaired by the chief justice, to vet applications of electoral commissioners.

Despite these changes, the executive branch still maintains significant influence over the electoral structure and decision making. The president still has the powers to appoint the chair, vice chair and commissioners of the electoral body.

With the opposition pushed aside and a controlled electoral process under way, CCM’s victory is all but certain. The key question now is the future of Tanzania’s democracy.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Nicodemus Minde, United States International University

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Nicodemus Minde is affiliated with the Institute for Security Studies.