There's a sure bet in Santa Fe's mayoral election: No one will win on the first ballot.

An outright victory would require one of the eight candidates to get more than 50% of the first-place votes in Santa Fe's ranked-choice system. That outcome is as likely as Mexican wolves becoming house pets of ranchers in Catron County.

The mayoral field includes four candidates with established political bases. They are current or former officeholders Justin Greene, Michael Garcia, JoAnne Vigil Coppler and Ron Trujillo.

Unknown is who has the largest group of followers or who will be most successful in getting out the vote. But those four appear to have the best chances of surviving the early rounds of ranked-choice voting. Simply put, the public knows them better than the rest.

Greene is a first-

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