There are great shot takers, and there are great shot makers. How does a turnaround fadeaway jump-shot compare to a contested dunk? Is it more likely that the average NBA player will make an uncontested three-pointer or a contested floater? Automated tracking systems and probabilistic machine learning classification have created a more advanced measure of player agnostic Expected Field Goal Percentage than ever before.

The Expected Field Goal Percentage model learns the impact of defensive contest posture, shooter orientation and balance, and court location to determine the odds a shot is going in based on the exact situation of the shot. Keeping this player agnostic allows insight into which players are beating their expected field goal percentage, along with the features around decision

See Full Page