Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October.

On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards

On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won't reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, on Oct. 3-5. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointin

See Full Page