The outlook on holiday 2025 at retail is dimming.

Low midsingle-digit gains are anticipated due to rising prices from tariffs and inflation, declining consumer confidence, economic uncertainties and potential stockouts. Holiday sales will continue to grow, but at a lower rate than last year.

In addition, holiday shopping for some consumers began as early as July amid concerns over rising prices and shortages on retail shelves. There should also be a pick-up in purchasing this month as another round of blockbuster pre-holiday sales — Amazon’s “Prime” sale is slated for Oct. 7 — are unleashed. Consequently, holiday results which are typically totaled based on November and December selling, or the fourth quarter which runs from November through January, will be depleted.

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