The NDC death loop (Part 1): Demands for ambition, disappointment and relevance in a fractured world

Published on : 07 Oct 2025, 3:24 pm Summary

As COP30 nears, the Paris Agreement’s system of voluntary national climate pledges faces a deep crisis of credibility.

The “NDC death loop” of ambition, disappointment, and renewed demands is undermining trust in climate governance.

Developing nations struggle to meet escalating emission targets amid shrinking global cooperation and inadequate finance.

The Global South’s core development needs — energy access, industrialisation, and equitable growth — remain largely ignored.

Climate ambition must be redefined to reflect diverse national pathways, not just higher emission cuts.

This is part one of a two-part series.

With climate impacts escalating, climate action remains one of the most urgent imperatives. Yet the architecture of clim