The United States is promising to treat Qatar's security like its own. • That single Trump administration decision sets in motion a geopolitical cluster. There's confusion and jealousy among Gulf states; questions of burden-sharing among NATO allies amid Trump's push for them to spend more money; and a political meltdown in Israel, among other drama.

Why it matters: There now exists a diet version of NATO's cornerstone Article 5 agreement between Washington and Doha — an arrangement several Middle East watchers described to Axios as unprecedented. • "The Trump administration may well have intended it one way, and the region could interpret it in another. It could take on a life of its own, in a sense," Mona Yacoubian at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Axios.

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