Public approval for Prime Minister Mark Carney's government is declining, according to a recent poll. The Postmedia-Leger survey shows the Liberals at 44 percent, while the Conservatives have gained ground at 38 percent. Although the Liberals still hold a significant lead, this marks the closest competition the Conservatives have seen since the April 28 federal election.

Earlier this summer, the Liberals enjoyed a 13-point lead over the Conservatives, with 48 percent support compared to 35 percent for the Tories. However, recent months have seen a shift, with Liberal supporters increasingly moving toward the Conservative party. This trend appears to stem from growing dissatisfaction with the Carney government rather than any specific Conservative policies.

In July, 55 percent of Canadians approved of Carney's government, while only 33 percent disapproved. This level of approval was notably higher than that of his predecessors, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, who often faced negative ratings during their tenures. However, the latest Leger poll indicates a tightening of approval ratings, with 46 percent satisfied and 42 percent dissatisfied with Carney's performance.

Andrew Enns from Leger noted that the Carney government has faced criticism on several fronts, including its handling of the Air Canada strike and the decision to drop Canadian counter-tariffs. He mentioned that there is a growing concern among stakeholders regarding the lack of progress on key campaign promises related to U.S. relations, housing, immigration, and public safety.

The April general election resulted in a Liberal minority government, similar to the previous elections in 2019 and 2021. However, it also revealed shifts in the country's electoral dynamics. The NDP has seen a significant decline, polling at just 7 percent, close to its low of 6.29 percent in the 2025 election, where it won only seven seats and failed to maintain official party status. In contrast, the Liberals continue to receive strong support from voters over 55, with 51 percent backing the party compared to 32 percent for the Conservatives.

Younger voters, traditionally a base for center-left parties, show a more divided preference, with 43 percent supporting the Liberals and 36 percent favoring the Conservatives. Notably, the gender gap that was evident during the 2025 election has diminished, with men and women now expressing nearly identical voting intentions. This evolving political landscape suggests that the upcoming months will be crucial for both the Liberals and Conservatives as they navigate public sentiment and prepare for potential future elections.