California Republicans appear to be on the brink of giving up their efforts to resist Gov. Gavin Newsom's anti-Trump vote to redraw his state's map in retaliation for MAGA-endorsed mid-decade gerrymanders elsewhere in the country, Ally Mutnick wrote for Punchbowl News on Wednesday.

Proposition 50, authorized by the legislature in response to Texas Republicans forcing through a redistricting plan that makes five Democratic-held congressional seats more favorable to Republicans, would, if approved by voters next month, temporarily suspend the state's redistricting commission and pass a map that similarly seeks to draw out five Republicans.

California Republicans have campaigned against it, but are desperately outgunned, Mutnick wrote, as Newsom's pro-Prop 50 group "has spent nearly $43 million on TV, radio, digital and streaming ads." By contrast, GOP megadonor Charles Munger Jr.'s Protect Voters First and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's Stop Sacramento's Power Grab, the two major GOP groups campaigning against the measure, "have spent a combined $27 million so far. That’s a $16 million gap."

"Privately, many Republicans believe it’s growing more likely that Prop 50 will pass. That’s thanks to the spending advantage, as well as the fact that Democrats have successfully nationalized the race with ads featuring President Donald Trump, according to multiple sources in both parties tracking the campaign," wrote Mutnick. Furthermore, Washington GOP figures are angry at McCarthy, who promised to raise $100 million to fight Prop 50 but has so far only spent $7 million on ads.

All of this continues as Trump puts pressure on other Republican-controlled states to pass aggressive new gerrymanders as well. Missouri recently passed a new map carving up Kansas City to draw out longtime Democratic lawmaker Emanuel Cleaver, but organizers in the state are gathering signatures for a referendum that could reverse it.

Meanwhile, Republicans got a setback to their efforts when a judge in Utah threw out that state's congressional gerrymander, potentially giving Democrats a chance to compete for a redrawn district there.